Archive for the 'Predictions' Category

A vision for Lonely Planet

Lonely planet publish books. They’re a book publisher. Books, in their traditional paper form, are dying. I attended a talk by Frances Linzee Gordon on Wednesday night at Gleebooks. Frances is a travel writer for Lonely Planet. She’s a great traveller. She’s a good photographer. She has some fantastic stories. It’s a pity her employer is bound to fail. That is, unless they evolve, and evolve fast.

This got me thinking, what would I advise Lonely Planet to do? I’ve thought about it a little. Here’s a quick summary.

Core offering

At it’s core, a Lonely Planet guidebook is 2 things. First, it’s a guide. Second, it’s a directory of information.

The guide is the bit that people like Frances make wonderful. The guide inspires you. It motivates you. It captures your imagination. You can fall in love with a place just by reading the guide. The information in the guide stays fairly constant. If a place is charming today, it’ll be charming a year from now.

The directory is indispensable. It’s a list of accommodation, sights, attractions, entertainment for the kids, emergency services, embassies, etc, etc. This information changes almost daily. New businesses open. Old businesses close. Places get better, places get worse. Opening hours change. The book can only hope to be “good enough to be useful”. It can’t possibly be “current”.

I think firstly, Lonely Planet needs to recognise this divide. Then they need to start separating the parts.

User input

Wikipedia, Wikitravel, Mahalo, they all work. They’re all using user feedback in one way or another. It works. Mahalo are trialling a great model. Something similar would work for Lonely Planet. Let readers update the directory. Business owners, bloggers, anyone. Let them all update the directory. Then have Lonely Planet staff check the facts. Anything else would be madness in this day and age.

The fact checking can be done mostly remotely. By telephone, email, or even online. It’s relatively unskilled work, so it’s cheap and easy to outsource. All sorts of smart algorithms could be used to prioritise what gets fact checked first.

So the content in the directory stays fresh, almost live.

Print

Print is what makes Lonely Planet great. You can buy it in a shop and take it with you. No wires, no batteries, no breakages. Split the book into two sections. Firstly, the glossy guide. Full colour, luxurious pages, beautiful photos. Secondly, the directory. Lighter paper, black and white, no photos. Here’s the genius. Make them two separate books. Put the directory inside the guide. In a back pocket. In a separate holder. Whatever.

Then print the guides every year. Every 18 months. As often as the books are currently printed. But, here’s the catch, print the guides every month. Grab whatever’s ready at the deadline, and print it. Mark what’s been verified and what hasn’t, and print anyway. Offer cheap updated directories for existing book owners. Let existing book owners print their own guides online.

Conclusion

Focus on the strengths. Lonely Planet has a great reputation. Let the travel writers focus on being great writers. Let the readers update the directory. Split the book in half. Print-on-demand the directory, pour even more splendour into the guide.

The reality is, if Lonely Planet don’t do it, somebody else will, and they’ll be the next Facebook to Lonely Planet’s MySpace.

Facebook is turning into MySpace

My biggest complaint with MySpace is, the profile pages get out of hand. They become outrageously long with vast numbers of images, videos and other junk. Facebook by comparison has always been cleaner, simpler and lighter. MySpace profiles take forever to load, even on broadband. Facebook profiles were snappy.

No longer.

I checked a profile today that contained a total of 1750 files coming in at 11.83 Mb. It took a total of 9minutes and 19 seconds to fully load. Outrageous. This user has a total of 75 Facebook apps installed.

Facebook need to fix the problem. There are a few simple solutions. For example, split the profile into multiple pages, with a few apps on each page. Or let users load one app at a time. Whichever way, something has to change.

I wonder if this signals the beginning of Facebook’s end.

Open source and adding value

There has been an interesting shift in Intellectual Property over the last few years. Particularly, the rise in popularity of open-source software. Companies like MySQL, Zend, RedHat, and others are pioneering a new way of doing business. Their core “product”, the software, is freely available. Not only is the product free to use, but you’re free to modify and re-distribute it.

I think this marks an interesting change in focus. What do these companies do to create value? The typical, old-fashioned model is you create something once (some Intellectual Property, IP) and you sell it many times over (Microsoft, Apple, Oracle, etc). Yet these new companies give you the IP for free.

Where many of these companies make money is by charging for additional services. Support, consultancy. Some also charge for alternative licences if you want to include their free software within your non-free software.

Personally, I like this direction. I support the idea of people being paid when they actually do something, rather than being paid many times for the same work. I think music will move in this direction over time, where fans pay for concerts, for events, but not for the music that has already been recorded. Interesting times.

Social Networking Rights

After talking about member rights on CouchSurfing, I was interested to see this article that Dante forwarded about creating a bill of rights for members of the social web. I’m strongly in favour of outlining exactly what rights users of social networks should have. I’m really pleased to see an increasing level of awareness and discussion on the subject.

I think for social networking to become ubiquitous, users must own their own data, and different systems must be compatible. I believe Email is so widely adopted because it’s a single standard. It doesn’t matter what email client / server / software you use, you can email anyone else on any other system. If social networking is to go the same way, it will need to be similarly standardised.

Greater control over Google software

I’ve noticed with most Google software (new window) that it tends to be very user friendly, at the expense of more advanced options.

For example, you have very little control over Google Desktop Search. You cannot force it to update the index while you’re working, it will only do it while the computer is “idle” and you have no way of defining “idle”. Additionally, there is no explanation of how “idle” is determined. Is it user input? If the mouse doesn’t move for 5 minutes, your computer is idle? Do other programs that run all the time stop it from being idle?

I predict that in time, Google software will allow users a greater level of control of stuff like this. A good option would be to split options out, having a simple user interface as default, with the usual “Advanced” option that geeks go for and then a “Hide all this complication and make it easy again” option to get back!

The igaware model is the future

I spent a few minutes this morning searching for the name of a product I’d come across a few years ago. Finally, it came to me, Igaware (new window).

I think the Igaware model is really the way of the future for Small Business IT. To put it simply, Igaware supply a server which has all the basic functionality required by the average small business. It includes your basic things like:

  • Email server including webmail
  • Shared calendars and address books
  • Virus scanning, firewall protection, etc
  • File sharing, backup, and so on

But that’s not particularly significant. What is significant is the business model. You rent the server. You lease what’s known in the trade as a “managed server”. That means, igaware look after it for you, although it’s physically located in your office.

It makes perfect sense really, the supplier has several hundred, or if my predictions are right, potentially several hundred thousand, servers which are identical. So they can easily roll out updates across them all, having thoroughly tested the update in advance. They can provide excellent, first class support, because they know exactly how the box will perform in any given situation. The model also guarantees reliability. With thousands of identical machines, it’s much easier to make sure they’re all reliable than make sure that thousands of different servers are all equally reliable.

I think the future of small business IT will be based around a product like this. Having said that, i don’t think it will be igaware, have a look at their web site (new window), have you ever seen anything more in need of a face lift?

Predictions

I’ve been thinking today about Google (new window) and their ever expanding range of products. From google searches, to google desktop search, gmail, and so on. It occurred to me that a logical step would be for Google Desktop Search (new window) to integrate with Windows Explorer. For example, if you want a folder excluded from the search, you right click and have an option, or it’s an option within properties.

Now as I’m writing this, it makes me think another logical step would be to use Google search technology to be used for all searching on your PC. For example, when I want to find an email, instead of using Outlook’s rubbish search, or using Google Desktop Search in my web browser (slightly inconvenient), instead, I could actually use Google’s search technology right inside Outlook.

Search algorithms could almost become a part of the operating system, and you could choose your provider, just like you choose your email provider. Do you want the Google search or the Microsoft search with that sir?